Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a single-digit lead over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to a new survey of the swing state that could determine control of the White House.
A Monmouth University poll released Monday, one day before Election Day, reports that half of Pennsylvania registered voters, 50 percent, prefer Biden and 45 percent favor Trump — a 5-point lead for the former vice president.
Biden leads Trump by the same margin under a Monmouth model forecasting a low level of voter turnout, 50-45 percent. But Biden’s lead expands to 7 percentage points under the high likely turnout model, 51-44 percent.
The previous version of the Monmouth Pennsylvania poll, published last month, also had Biden ahead among registered voters, 54-42 percent; under the high likely turnout model, 54-43 percent; and under the low likely turnout model, 53-45 percent.
According to the RealClearPolitics average of recent Pennsylvania surveys, conducted Oct. 26-Nov. 1, Biden leads Trump in the state by 4.3 points. Trump won Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes by 1.2 percentage points in 2016.
Pennsylvania is one of three Great Lakes states Trump flipped four years ago to secure his Electoral College victory. But Trump is polling further behind Biden in the other two states, Michigan and Wisconsin, prompting speculation that Pennsylvania will be the tipping point for deciding the presidency in 2020.
Biden, who was born in Scranton, Pa., earned the nickname “Pennsylvania’s third senator” during his decades representing Delaware in the Senate. The former vice president still resides in Wilmington, Del., not far from the Pennsylvania border, and has his presidential campaign headquarters based in Philadelphia.
In an effort to dent the Democratic nominee’s lead in the state, Trump has attacked Biden’s remarks about the oil industry and position on fracking — the controversial hydraulic technology that has contributed to an energy boom in Pennsylvania.
The Monmouth poll was conducted Oct. 28-Nov. 1, surveying 502 Pennsylvania registered voters with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
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